Is Comet Elenin Going to Hit Earth?

[seeker1117]

Ah, the voice of reason! Thank you, Pons.

Posted twice that the thing was disintegrating, and still people want to sensationalize about it!

It's prolly not gonna make it as an "object" much longer, folks...WE'VE ALL BEEN "PLAYED"!

As they say: "Move along...show's over...nothing to see here..."

[Bob137]

Yes, just move on to the 12/21/2012, and see if the same thing happens, will it just be another hot summer, and cold winter, with very little fall or spring, and regularly increasing natural disasters, due to mankind's stupidity of taking to many of the natural resources from the planet, and not giving much back? Mother earth probably thinks, "I can't get no respect"!

[cesarnc]

the effect that Elenin will have on the Earth is (roughly):

ZERO

LOL Pons... If it was in response to my post, I didn't mean to - I beg your pardon, seeker - "sensationalize" about it.

I just posted pure, raw data to keep up with the comet. That's all...

[seeker1117]

Not directed at you, cesarnc! Just to the continuing "HYPE" surrounding this melting slush-ball on the internet! It just keeps on comin'...

[Pons Asinorum]

Ah, the voice of reason! Thank you, Pons.

Posted twice that the thing was disintegrating, and still people want to sensationalize about it!

It's prolly not gonna make it as an "object" much longer, folks...WE'VE ALL BEEN "PLAYED"!

As they say: "Move along...show's over...nothing to see here..."

Thank you for the kind words Seeker1117!

And thank you for commenting on the disintegration of Elenin. It will be about he size of a baseball by the time it gets here

LOL Pons...

...

I just posted pure, raw data to keep up with the comet. That's all...

Me too

I know you are just having fun Cesarnc, and are mostly worried about what stocks to pick for the 2012 opportunity .

Please know that some really, truly, beleive this end-of-the-world stuff and a portion of them will find this site. I just want to join with other commenters on this thread who offer a different view for consideration -- mainly for the open-minded, but worried person that might chance upon this site. The close-minded are of course, lost.

You already know this stuff (Newtons Grav Law and how to calculate the numbers properly), so I am bemused by some of your comments, but suspect you are having fun with the gringos up north (or the Portuguese equivalent term of which I am ignorant) ...?...or... you're not trying to drive up a stock price or something are you? lol

[cesarnc]

But I gotta tellya. Have you seen that video showing Elenin-Earth-Sun alignments right on the dates of major earthquakes here? That's really impressive. I think it were 3 or 4 events like that.

Next alignment in October, I think.

I agree that it is impossible for an ordinary comet to affect Earth gravitationally. But boy, 3 or 4 "coincidences" like these?

[Bob137]

I believe that something is actually affecting our whole solar system, not just our planet, and not Comet Elenin!

[seeker1117]

Bob: I believe you're right. "Something" is afoot, definitely. I just believe that this whole "Elenin" thing was part of a huge disinformation/fear-mongering campaign. And I hear ya about too-hot summers and no real spring/fall. Right now here in Central TX, we're in a lot of pain. The Bastrop fires are only a part of the story. If we don't get rain soon, we won't have any trees at all. Instead of 3 acres of woods, I'll be living on 3 acres of dusty parking lot.

cesarnc: There's folks who are saying now that the "two earthquakes" were actually underground nuclear explosions, set off on purpose (main evidence they site is that there were no "build-up" quakes, just a big "bang" and that is not how most earthquakes happen...there are usually a series a tiny quakes and THEN the big one). Suppose that video was made by someone involved in the disinformation/fear campaign. It would all fit together nicely if there to just "happen to be" two "earthquakes" on those dates...maybe they were planned!

[cesarnc]

I believe that something is actually affecting our whole solar system, not just our planet, and not Comet Elenin!

Sure thing. I'm taking care of a 1.5 years old now.

When I get the time I'll post the information on "Global Warming" in the entire Solar System. I mean, every planet - no conspiracy, no BS. Facts.

Or... Hyundai is so awesome (as they advertise) that they are selling SUVs to the entire Solar System!!!

cesarnc: There's folks who are saying now that the "two earthquakes" were actually underground nuclear explosions, set off on purpose (main evidence they site is that there were no "build-up" quakes, just a big "bang" and that is not how most earthquakes happen...there are usually a series a tiny quakes and THEN the big one). Suppose that video was made by someone involved in the disinformation/fear campaign. It would all fit together nicely if there to just "happen to be" two "earthquakes" on those dates...maybe they were planned!

I haven't seen this nuke theory yet. I'll find the video to post here. It was posted here on LT, I think it was in this thread.

[Ace Rimmer]

I believe that something is actually affecting our whole solar system, not just our planet, and not Comet Elenin!

I agree, things are really out of wack and they are just going to get wackier!

We have been having unusual weather for us too. It's the year of breaking records.

[Bob137]

Just think all these things are happening, plus all the planets in our solar system, are having a pull on them, from somewhere, and our Sun is acting up, plus our earth, and who knows what next, Aliens!!! Heavens to Betsy, we just caught ourselves a real live Alien Ma! Just Joking about the Alien thing. Anyway, things are definitely changing, whether we like it or not, and whether we want it or not, and whether we believe it or not, it is happening anyway, so I guess I am just along for the ride, like the rest of you. Hold on, cause here we go again!

[angeloneastralseed]

I decided to see for myself - someone mentioned that it was in the direction of the sun and that is why we can't see it right now. So I took this photo (in negative) of the sun, here is what I got: What do you think? I took it at 3:45 p.m. today, Pacific time. You can see the trees, some clouds, the sun and something very interesting with a mist behind it.

Sorry, I was having difficulties. Here it is. Try it for yourselves too, go take a negative pic of the sun.

[cesarnc]

I believe that something is actually affecting our whole solar system, not just our planet, and not Comet Elenin!

I agree, things are really out of wack and they are just going to get wackier!

We have been having unusual weather for us too. It's the year of breaking records.

Stronger hurricane and typhoons
Stronger Earthquakes
Not enough? Earthquakes WITH Tsumanis (but don't call yet! If you can in the next 15 minutes you will get a nuclear leak, totally free!)
Violence (9/11, war on terror, suicidal attacks, London riots, Israel protests, school shootings - HELLOW NORWAY, welcome to the circus!!!)
Arab Sprint (c'mon, that's something you didn't see coming) - Tunisia, Egypt, Lybia, Syria
Economy on the brink of collapse in USA and EU (ok, some people don't think so, I give you that).

From the top of my mind only, feel free to complete the list...

On the other hand... In response??? (creepy)...

UFO sightings at all time high
Holy Mary (superior being for those not religion inclined) apparitions at all time high (here in Brazil been going on for 13 years, church didn't deny)
USA, Europe with UFO disclosure agendas...

Oh boy, that's gonna be one heck of a 2012

[Ace Rimmer]

Hang on people it's going to be a bumpy night.

[cesarnc]

Hang on people it's going to be a bumpy night.

What'ya know that I don't?

[Ace Rimmer]

Hang on people it's going to be a bumpy night.

What'ya know that I don't?

I don't know Jack.

Angel that is a great picture, whatever that is sure is close to the sun.

[cesarnc]

I decided to see for myself - someone mentioned that it was in the direction of the sun and that is why we can't see it right now. So I took this photo (in negative) of the sun, here is what I got: What do you think? I took it at 3:45 p.m. today, Pacific time. You can see the trees, some clouds, the sun and something very interesting with a mist behind it.

Sorry, I was having difficulties. Here it is. Try it for yourselves too, go take a negative pic of the sun.

You can check Elenin's position in this link:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C ... ;cad=0#orb

For today, it seems to me the comet is not right in the direction of the sun. As I don't know your coordinates when you took this photo, this green shape there could be it, coudn't it?

[Bob137]

From the little I know about comets, I believe the tail is supposed to be flowing away from the Sun, not back towards it, or perpendicular to it, or diagonal from it, but away from it! This also does not look like a regular tail of a comet, it is almost as though it is sprayed outward form the back of the comet, coming towards this way?

[cesarnc]

From the little I know about comets, I believe the tail is supposed to be flowing away from the Sun, not back towards it, or perpendicular to it, or diagonal from it, but away from it! This also does not look like a regular tail of a comet, it is almost as though it is sprayed outward form the back of the comet, coming towards this way?

For more: Google Images "Comet Tail Sun"

[seeker1117]

OK: this picture from angel certainly made me sit up and blink a few times.

That's no "mist"...and it doesn't look like any "tail" I've ever seen.

Frankly, it looks more like a force-field...I'd like to see an enlargement of just that object and the green "field".

Of course, my first thought is: it's a force-field to protect a space ship from the sun's radiation.

But that's just silly, right? We all know there's no such thing as space ships and force fields...right?

[angeloneastralseed]

If you imagine the comet in between us and the sun, then yes, the tail is wrong. But if you imagine that the comet is still coming toward the sun, then the tail is correct. I don't think it is in between the sun and Earth yet. And as far as the tail looking stranger than any other, well if it is headed straight for you then it will. The comets I have seen are buzzing past Earth, not headed to, so that is one difference in this one.

Here it is in the morning - at 9:30 A.m.


I plan on taking more pics throughout the day to see the different visual positions Earth puts us at.

2nd post - I'm thinking about this and here is another reason I think it is on the other side of the sun. Here is why I'm thinking this, and please, someone correct me if I'm wrong:

Sun is 93 Million miles from Earth
Comets travel approx 20,000 mph
If it were exactly at the sun distance right now it would take 6 months to reach us (~March 2012)
The articles I have read have stated that it will be it's most brilliant on October 16th (ish - the articles vary a little) So say that is either when it is closest to Earth and passing by or that is when it reaches the sun - 6 mo from then = April 2012
In order for it to hit on the supposed "Dooms Day of Dec 21, 2012 it would need to reach our sun in June of 2012, then take it's six months to reach us - that would mean that we are headed for a collision point of where the comet will pass our orbit, but the problem being...we will be occupying that space at that time. Did I do the math correctly?

This is interesting to read:
http://globalrumblings.blogspot.com/201 ... etter.html

And wait...I thought we were finished with the moon-could it be that this launch is really to attempt to break up Elenin?
http://www.placesaroundflorida.com/Cape ... _Schedule/

http://space.flatoday.net/

[Pons Asinorum]

Excellent pictures angeloneastralseed, but a couple of questions come to mind:

* How do you know the object is Elenin?
* What magnification factor did you use?
* How did you protect your eyes?

Okay, make that three questions

Just a quick, general caution:

observing the Sun through any unmitigated optical device like a telescope or binoculars will result in retina damage up to and including blindness (even looking at the Sun with the naked eye can do the same).

--

Angel, your above calculation is mechanically correct, but the velocity is incorrect (speed and direction).

First, the speed of Elenin is currently about 24 km/s (about 54,000 mph).

Second, Elenin is traveling not in a straight-line, but in a curved path called a hyperbolic orbit. This means that its length of travel will be greater than a straight-line distance.

In both cases, its speed and direction are in constant change, although on its current segment that change may not be significant (it should be slightly slowing and turning).

If we had a straight-line distance between the Sun and the Earth and given Elenin's current speed:

93,000,000 miles / 54,000 mph = about 72 days

--

Elenin's closet distance to the Sun will be 0.482 AU (on Sep 11, 2011 -- tomorrow)
Elenin's closet distance to the Earth will be 0.234 AU or (on Oct 16, 2011)

Distance covered (approximate because this assumes a straight-line): 0.482 AU - 0.234 AU = 0.248 AU = 44.8 million miles

Time interval (plus or minus 24 hrs): about 35 days or 840 hrs.

So the average speed of Elenin between its closest approach to the Earth and its closest approach to the Sun is about:

44,800,000 miles / 840 hr = 53,000 mph

--

There is undoubtedly a simpler way to calculate the distance between two points on a hyperbolic arc, but am a bit pressed for time today. Will look into it later if no one else posts the formula first.

[angeloneastralseed]

Thanks Pons, that info is very helpful. I know it travels in a curved path, I was referring to the moment it comes into the path of Earth's orbit, and yes I did calculate in a straight line, so thanks for the correction. It's a shorter time frame than I thought, then. I don't know it's Elenin, I'm guessing as I cannot find any info on it's exact location - remember, space is huge and we may think it is near the sun, but really it isn't - it's a matter of where you are in space at the time you see it.

To answer your questions tho:
I don't know what it is and no planets show up in that direction on my astronomy software - plus it doesn't move like a planet.
I just used my cell phone - you should do yourself - take a photo with your cell phone in the negative mode and you will see it for yourself.
I never looked at the sun directly (I know the consequences ), just held up my phone and snapped. Took a few times as I was cutting it off a lot.

Here is my 1:00 p.m. pic - now maybe it's me trying to make something that isn't, or maybe it's a sun flare but is there another sort of strange object int he photo? It's to the right and between the two beams. All three of my photos I took at this time had it and they were about 30 seconds apart. It's sort of translucent.



Like I said, I don't want to make it something it isn't but looks like a possible UFO? What do you think?

[cesarnc]

From the Globalrumbling article:

"In latest development now we learns 10 page letter is already out on the web since October 2010, which proves that US NASA and the White House know about ELENIN and consider it “a real threat” (On October 11, 2011 Elenin will be only 0.246au away from Earth; that’s a quarter of the distance to the sun.) it`s possible even more dangerous against earth than we understand.


One of the best ways to get audience is by appealing to people's ignorance. "Only 0.246AU" for those who don't know what an "AU" means, looks like "a little / too close".

1 AU equals 150 million km - 94 million miles.

For reference, the distance between Earth and Moon is 400,000 km or 0,0027 AU.

Elenin will be as close as 35 million km (22 million miles) from the Earth.... if.....

....okay....

... If NASA's public data are trustworthy.


|------------------------------------------> Combined double posts as required by rule --Pons <------------------------------------------|


Closest to the Sun today. Also top speed in the entire orbit.

If I were driving this thing, it would be time to blow the engines just a few degrees to the right to rendezvous with the blue planet

[seeker1117]

Wow...angel, your pics are fascinating. Whatever it is (if it IS Elenin) it doesn't seem to be "disintegrating" and it's seemingly of a pretty darn massive size. Keep posting more as you can take them...I'm intrigued! and yeah...guess I'm not above questioning NASA's info at this point.

[angeloneastralseed]

Here is today's 3:45 p.m. photo:


I'm still trying to find out if it really is Elenin, Venus or what it is. It doesn't move like a planet, but than again I don't study the planet movements on a daily basis, I'm just going by my astronomy program. Also, the pictures I have seen of Venus near the Sun don't have that mist around it.

Here is me goofing off with the contrast and saturation of the object. It's zoomed in only on the object, the sun rays are the dark parts.



I wish I could find out more, it just isn't out there.

I just found this image of Venus near the Sun

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c3/512/

Does not look like what I'm getting and what I'm getting in REAL LIFE is not showing up on this SOHO controlled site - unless it is closer to the sun and the disc in the middle is blocking it.

[cesarnc]

Here's the planets and elenin according to NASA.

You can rule out Elenin or keep it in the "could-be realm" with the picture. I think you would have to consider the time you took the picture, too.



To me, that spot in your picture seems to be too close to the Sun to be Elenin. I might be Venus, no?

[angeloneastralseed]

I know it "looks" close but in space it all depends on the view point, it may still be millions of miles from the sun and "look" close because of our viewing point. When you put distance between you and your objects, the objects appear closer.

[cesarnc]

I know it "looks" close but in space it all depends on the view point, it may still be millions of miles from the sun and "look" close because of our viewing point. When you put distance between you and your objects, the objects appear closer.

Sorry, I didn't mean "close" as absolute distance.

I meant "close" in the picture. If you see Venus' position and Elenin's position in the picture that I posted, Venus would "appear to be close or right besides" the Sun as in your picture.

[seeker1117]

If it *were* Venus (or Mercury, for that matter: Mercury is closer to the sun) it wouldn't have the "tail", would it?

[Pons Asinorum]

Not sure what the object in your picture is Angel, but it is an interesting image.

NASA is reporting an apparent total magnitude (M1) of +10.4. Recalling that the bigger the number, the fainter its visibility:

* Sun: -26.7
* Moon: -12.6
* Venus: -4.4
* Sirrus: -1.44
* Vega +0.04
* faintest star that can be seen by the naked eye: +6.5
* Elenin +10.4

So an M1 of +10.4 means that it cannot be seen by the naked eye.

A camera lens that is not magnified is less able to capture an image than the human eye (on a clear evening, take a picture of the night sky that is full of stars and notice that only a few of the brightest stars will be in the image, if any -- unless you have some sort of magnification).

Angel, you noted that you were just using your cell phone camera -- IMHO that is not powerful enough to photograph Elenin.

I am not 100% certain, but that is my best guess (which is to say, I feel Elenin can be confidently excluded, but have no idea of the nature of the object in the image, but do now suspect an artifact of some sort).

--

Finding a formula for the distance between two points on a hyperbola is not a trivial matter. I earlier stated I would post such a formula here, but will now take much longer than I thought -- will give it a try though.

Right now, my plan is to take the equation that describes the hyperbola of Elenin's orbit, parametrize it, and then take a definite integral over a specific angle. If anyone know an easier way ( cough*Cesarnc ) please feel free to comment.

[cesarnc]

Pass

[Pons Asinorum]

LOL

[Buzi-Blu]

Could it be the camera? Does the object show with another camera? Perhaps a speck of dust is scattering light. If nothing shows on the SOHO images then that would seem to imply it's not actually there.

Nice pictures nevertheless.

[cesarnc]

One thing I know: I hate this comet's guts. Period.

Either there are a lot of dreadful coincidences about it, namely:
- Leonid (Leo as Bidermman in the movie / Leonid as "metor shower from Leo constellation)
- Elenin (E.L.E. / ninele - 9/11 - perihelion in 9/11)
- alignments associated with massive earthquakes on Earth (based on NASA's data)
- triangular / tetrahedral shape around it, as shown here before

OR

Guys at NASA are a bunch of pranksters...

I want this thing off the Solar System.